image via gemini ai

While browsing the internet today, I stumbled upon a fantastic analysis perfect for us football enthusiasts. FOX Sports had a computer simulate the upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup exactly 100,000 times! Yes, you read that right; they didn’t cut corners and replayed the entire tournament from scratch a hundred thousand times.

Naturally, as the tournament approaches, questions like “Who will be the champion?” and “Will a surprise team emerge?” keep spinning in our heads. So, I wanted to filter the most prominent, interesting, and sometimes shocking results of this massive simulation and note them down here.

The best part of keeping a blog is being able to easily look back and find similar posts from the past. I published a similar post back in 2018, and the AI failed miserably.

Let’s dive in and take a look at the results the AI is whispering to us almost 8 years later.

🏆 Clash of the Titans: The Usual Suspects Are Back on Top

As you might guess, the powerhouses and giants of football completely dominated the simulation. The quintet of Spain, France, England, Brazil, and Argentina won exactly 63,000 (or 63%) of the 100,000 simulations, taking the trophy home.

  • Top 7 teams with the highest probability of winning: Spain (16%), France (16%), England (12%), Brazil (10%), Argentina (9%), Portugal (8%), Germany (6%)
  • Most Popular Final Matchup: The most frequently encountered final scenario of the tournament was France - Spain (around 7,000 times, a 7% probability). Interestingly, both teams had completely identical odds of winning the tournament: 16%.
  • Second Biggest Scenario: The second most popular final was Brazil - Spain (5%). In this matchup, Brazil reaches a happy ending in 10% of the simulations.
  • Rarest Big Final: The probability of England and Portugal meeting in the final remained the lowest among the heavyweights at 2.5% (2,494 simulations).

Portugal’s Bad Luck and Those Looking for a Surprise

Among the teams that do not yet have a World Cup in their museum, the country that won the tournament the most was Portugal (they experienced a championship in exactly 8,000 simulations). It feels like proof of how highly regarded their squad quality is, even in the post-Cristiano Ronaldo era.

So, could we watch a “Cinderella Story” from outside Europe and South America? The statistics are a bit brutal here: the probability of a champion emerging from a continent outside of Europe or South America is only 5.4% (5,443 simulations). But brace yourselves, the team carrying the flag at the very front of this 5.4% slice is Japan! The Samurai Blue lifted the cup in 1,415 simulations, making them the team with the highest surprise potential in this category.

How Are the Hosts Doing?

As you know, the United States, Mexico, and Canada are jointly hosting the tournament in 2026. How do you think the home-field advantage reflected in the simulations?

  • USA: The American team did not draw a bad chart. They advanced to the semi-finals in 9.8% of the simulations (9,794 times) and reached the final in 3.9%. They even managed to win the cup in 1,297 simulations! (A 1.3% championship probability is better than nothing).
  • Mexico: Mexico reached the semi-finals with a 7.3% probability and the final with a 2.6% probability. Their number of championships stands at 936 (0.9%).
  • Canada: Now for the most dramatic part of the matter… Canada became a victim of its unfortunate 0-0-6 (Win-Draw-Loss) history in World Cups. Even though they reached the semi-finals at a 4.2% rate and the final at 1.2% in the simulations, they couldn’t win the cup in even a single one of the 100,000 simulations! Going completely empty-handed is truly heartbreaking. But at least in the group stages, they managed to finish ahead of Bosnia and Herzegovina, who pulled off a huge surprise by eliminating Italy this year.

⚽ The Golden Boot Race

Who do you think will score the most goals from the group stages to the final? The computer’s predictions on this matter are quite clear:

  1. Kylian Mbappé: The big-tournament player became the top scorer in 13% of the simulations (more than 13,000 times).
  2. Harry Kane: The English striker follows closely behind with 12% (12,000 simulations).

📌 Final Words

No matter what the data, probabilities, and statistics say; what makes football beautiful is that the ball is round on the green pitch, and anything can change at any moment. Still, we got some excellent material to discuss with friends before the tournament kicks off!

Who is your favorite? Do you agree with the computer’s predictions, or will a surprise champion like Canada emerge and defy all expectations? Let’s meet in the comments!

Source and Detailed Analysis: FOX Sports - 2026 World Cup Simulated 100,000 Times: Here Are The Results